So, are we in a “window of opportunity” when home prices may be lower than they will ever be? Let’s break it down logically. Here's what the data and trends suggest:
Reasons this could be that rare window:
Inventory is still low, and demand will probably increase if rates drop more. That’s kept prices from spiking, but many markets have cooled or even dipped slightly.
Once interest rates fall, demand is expected to surge again. Why? Because:
- There’s a huge wave of Millennial and Gen Z buyers waiting to jump in.
- Many “move-up” sellers are holding back right now because they don't want to give up their 2–3% rates.
- Builders haven’t built enough housing in over a decade.
Institutional buyers (hedge funds, REITs) are gearing up to buy again. Once rates drop a bit more, they could start scooping up inventory—driving prices higher and reducing available homes for regular buyers.
Inflation and rising construction costs make it unlikely that prices will go down significantly in the long run.
Bottom line: If rates drop and demand surges, prices may spike faster than inventory can catch up. That means today’s prices, even at higher rates, could be seen as “cheap” in hindsight.
But what are the chances that this really is the lowest prices we’ll see again?
According to AI, there is a 50% to 60% chance that prices in King County are currently as low as they will ever be.
There is a 20% to 30% chance that prices will drop further. However this would likely require a recession, job losses, or a rate spike.
These are not guarantees—but based on 50+ years of real estate cycles, long-term prices almost always go up, even after recessions or slowdowns.
So what’s the strategy if you’re considering buying?
- If you find a home that fits your needs and budget at today’s prices, you may be buying at a relative low.
- Don’t just wait for the “perfect time”—instead, negotiate hard now while competition is low.
- Marry the house, date the rate—you can likely refinance later.
- Ask for seller credits to buy down your rate.
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